The U.S. Census Bureau released all sorts of statistics last week that, if you’re like me, make for fascinating reading. I pay especially close attention to population numbers across the state and try to glean trends that may predict what Montana will look like in five, or 10, years from now.
Of course, trends can reverse course, but the latest stats at least tell us a little bit about potential growth in Northwest Montana and elsewhere in the state. And reading population estimates in Flathead County, a question quickly arises: How long until we crack 100,000 residents.
Between July 2012 and July 2013, Flathead County added 1,408 people, for a total population of 93,068, according to the Census Bureau. At 1.5 percent, that is the 15th-highest growth rate among the state’s 56 counties. But compared to larger counties (those with more than 25,000 residents), Flathead ranks second, behind only Gallatin, which grew at a rate of 2.2 percent.
At its current pace, Flathead should reach 100,000 residents in about five years. What does this mean? Not much, except that we will be joining Gallatin (which should cross that mark before us), Missoula and Yellowstone as the only counties in the state with that many people. Many locals won’t be celebrating the rather inconsequential milestone. It will provide more evidence that the area is losing its rural character.
I remember in 2012, when Montana surpassed 1 million people, hearing from several disappointed residents. But there’s no going back now – the latest data pegs our state population at 1,015,165. And that trend is likely the case in regard to Flathead’s growth, considering we have continued to add residents as our economy has improved at a relatively sluggish pace. What happens if it begins booming again?
For better or worse, this area is attractive and will continue to draw new residents. Wide-open spaces, hospitals, affordability – people are coming for different reasons. But they’re coming. And how this valley changes as the population increases is already being debated and will continue for years.
Do we keep stacking more businesses on the north side of Kalispell? What about Whitefish and its residential market that is creeping toward unaffordable? Will Columbia Falls and the canyon area see an influx of people? It’s essential to consider these scenarios if you live in and love this place.
To be sure, the rate at which Northwest Montana is growing is more manageable than in some counties to the east. Three of the five fastest-growing counties in the state (Wibaux, Richland and Sheridan) border North Dakota and are near the booming oil fields. Those municipalities have scrambled to provide infrastructure for the influx of workers.
In Fairview, a town in Richland County that hugs the border, the mayor told Bloomberg News late last year that the city’s needs are far outpacing its cash on hand. He said a much-needed new water tank and improvements to a sewage treatment plant could cost $14.4 million, while the city’s budget is $2.7 million.
“A town of 1,100 people just doesn’t run down to the bank and write a check for that kind of money,” Mayor Bryan Cummins said.
Meanwhile, other areas of the state have seen their growth slow or begin losing people. Missoula County added just 704 new residents over the year measured by the Census. Sanders and Lincoln counties, home to the top two jobless rates in the state, saw population declines of 0.3 and 0.2 percent, respectively. In all, 16 mostly rural Montana counties lost residents, according to the latest figures.
In comparison, Flathead continued to grow despite bearing the brunt of the recession. And as we march toward 100,000 residents, I’m optimistic about where we go from here.