HELENA – The Montana GOP is confident a rising tide of conservative politics nationwide will trickle down into the state’s local races and give Republicans full control of the Legislature for the first time in six years.
Democrats believe their effectiveness in running the state will be rewarded on Election Day.
In the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s election, Republicans have launched an aggressive campaign spurred by anger from their base over federal health care reform and spending as they vowed to use control of both the state Senate and House to stymie state implementation of pieces of the health care bill. Local tea party activists say the promise is a result of their demands for a more conservative GOP platform.
“I think where our influence comes in is that the tea party groups have spoken out and asked that our elected officials pay more attention to the constitution and some conservative values,” said Jim Walker, chairman of the Big Sky Tea Party in Helena. “It seems like a lot of candidates are picking up on that message now. And as far as we are concerned that is a good thing.”
Currently, Democrats hold organizational control of a 50-50 House. Republicans have a 27-23 control in the Senate, and Democrats have little hope of taking it back given the mix of races in play — leaving most focused on who will control the House.
While Montana Republicans hope the tea party fervor will give them a majority in both chambers, Montana voters have a history of bucking national political trends as they did in 2008. At a time when Democrats were winning statewide and national races with ease, voters two years ago switched control of the state Senate over to Republicans.
“The control of the House is going to be tight,” said Democratic Party chairman Jim Elliott, who was a longtime legislator from Trout Creek. “Honestly, I think it could go either way, which means, optimistically speaking, we can control it.”
In recent years, the Legislature has been marked by cantankerous meltdowns and stalemates, high-profile Republican defections and infighting on key votes.
Local Democratic candidates fighting a backlash against the party nationally are telling voters that they have done well under Gov. Brian Schweitzer in keeping the state budget balanced without raising taxes or making big service cuts, Elliott said.
“They are facing a national perception that does not apply to Montana Democrats. That is hard to beat down,” Elliott said. “But I think the quality of our candidates and the strength of their campaigning is going to overcome that.”
Sen. Jeff Essmann, a Billings Republican leading the GOP legislative campaigns, said the local Democrats will still pay a price for the decisions made by their party leaders in Washington D.C.
“I think the voters of Montana will want to send a strong message to Montana Democrats to stop supporting these national policies that are harmful to the nation and harmful to the state,” he said.
The intense interest on the legislative races is leading to some tough battles.
Most notably Democrat Rep. Kendall Van Dyk is challenging Sen. Roy Brown, who ran for governor against Schweitzer two years ago, in the most expensive legislative race the state has seen at over $200,000. The Billings district is getting flooded with attack mailers from both sides, and both candidates are receiving a lot of support from party leaders.
Political scientist James Lopach of the University of Montana said that House districts are small enough for voters to know candidates personally, which could help Democrats fight back against negative feelings toward their party. But that fervor could still trickle down into the races.
“It seems in terms of intensity of feeling, it is just so strong,” he said. “I really think the average voters, the ones who turn out and vote, they are going to see this election as an opportunity for democratic participation. They want to be heard. And the principle motivation is not to endorse, but is to repudiate.”
Other races that could dictate control of the Legislature:
— East Helena Rep. Jill Cohenour, a Democrat, is challenging Republican Sen. Terry Murphy of Cardwell.
— Cohenour’s husband, highway patrolman Joe Cohenour, is vying for her open East Helena seat and faces a tough battle with Steve Gibson.
— Democrats feel confident that Sheila Hogan of Clancy can seize an open seat that has long been held by Republicans. She faces bar owner of Basin.
— Both sides are eyeing the rural northeastern Montana House seat held by Rep. Julie French, D-Scobey. She faces a strong challenge from Republican Austin Knudsen, a Culbertson attorney.
— Republicans like their chances in suburban Bozeman of knocking off incumbent Democratic Rep. JP Pomnichowski, again facing a challenge from Republican Tom Burnett.
— House Speaker Bob Bergren, a Havre Democrat, is seeking an open Senate seat in a race against Republican minister Rowlie Hutton.