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Clinton Favored in Schweitzer-Stakes

By Kellyn Brown

As Gov. Brian Schweitzer wrapped up an interview with my colleague recently, I quickly interjected to ask two dumb questions: What do you think your chances are at the Democratic vice presidential nomination and whom do you plan on endorsing in the presidential election?

He scoffed at the first and ignored the second, deflecting attention to his dog, Jag, who lay asleep on the newsroom floor. Schweitzer is focused on his own re-election campaign for governor – spending most of the preceding interview criticizing state Republicans’ track record on energy development. But in regard to his presidential preference, it sure appears to me that he would opt to back Sen. Hillary Clinton unless Sen. Barack Obama wins Montana by a landslide.

This, of course, is pure speculation on my part and assumes the Democratic primary race continues to at least June 3, when Montanans vote dead last. Schweitzer has been mum on the subject and said he would wait until after the primary to endorse. Since the governor’s nod is one of the most sought after of the remaining undecided superdelegates – those party higher-ups whose votes help decide the Democratic nominee – speculating on which way he is leaning is timely.

I think he prefers Clinton. First off, Schweitzer is not the type to get caught up in Obama’s rapid ascent to political prominence since the governor has followed a similar path with almost equal success. Like Obama, Schweitzer has quickly become a political star who pundits have mentioned as a future president. And in Montana, endorsing Obama would do little to help his re-election chances since Schweitzer is already a heavy favorite with approval ratings in the mid-60s.

That’s why his recent criticism of Obama matters. In an interview with ABC News, the governor denounced Obama’s proposed universal healthcare plan, saying Clinton’s plan is better because it requires everyone to get coverage. He said he was disappointed that Obama voted for President Bush’s 2005 energy bill. And, in what I think is a deal breaker, Schweitzer took issue with Obama saying he wouldn’t support coal-to-liquid fuels unless they emitted 20 percent less carbon than conventional fuels. It’s hard to find a position closer to Schweitzer’s heart than the need for more coal exploration in Montana and to reduce this country’s dependence on foreign oil.

Moreover, Walter Schweitzer, Brian’s brother who many believe holds some sway over the governor’s decision-making (how much depends on whom you ask), joined the Clinton campaign last week as a senior adviser.

The governor downplayed the significance of his brother’s endorsement and told the Associated Press that he still wouldn’t be endorsing until after the primary. To Schweitzer’s credit, both of Montana’s Democratic U.S. senators, Max Baucus and Jon Tester, have said the same. And when the final votes in the final primary are tallied, all three politicians may simply endorse the candidate who garners the most votes. But if it’s close, or if Clinton wins, and if I was a betting man (which I am) I would put my money on Schweitzer backing the New York senator.

And if he agrees with Clinton on more issues than Obama, why shouldn’t he endorse her? Sure, there’s that tiny detail about maintaining the national unity of the Democratic Party. But while Obama said his candidacy would put Montana in play in the general election, the governor clearly disagrees; saying both candidates’ previous waffling on gun issues would prevent them from taking the state.

I’ve made some bad bets in my day, but in the Schweitzer-stakes my money is on Clinton – a whole $5.