In recent weeks, supporters of Sen. Jon Tester and Rep. Denny Rehberg have engaged in a game of email tug of war over Medicare, sending early and clear signals that the elderly are expected to play a pivotal role in Montana’s 2012 U.S. Senate race, one of the key senatorial races in the nation.
As Montana State University political scientist David Parker says: “seniors vote.” And in a state with an aging population where nearly one out of every five people depends on Medicare and Social Security, there are abundant and crucial senior citizen votes to court.
“Medicare is a big issue in this race,” Parker, who is writing a book on the campaign, said.
Emails sent by official party organizations, including the campaigns themselves, illustrate the importance both parties are placing on Medicare in Montana. The emails, which have been arriving frequently in the inboxes of supporters and news organizations, tout each side’s candidate – Democratic incumbent Tester and Republican challenger Rehberg – as the real protector of Medicare.
Last week, both Rehberg and Tester, through a spokesman, denounced the opposition’s attempts to “scare” Montana’s seniors.
Both the Montana GOP and Rehberg’s campaign have claimed that Tester’s vote in favor of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act translated to supporting $500 billion in Medicare cuts. The claim has been made in states with similarly heated races.
In response, the Montana Democratic Party sent out an email that declared: “Rehberg’s Defensiveness Hides a Record of Gutting Medicare.” The Democrats criticize the congressman’s vote in favor of the Cut, Cap and Balance Act in July, along with his opposition to the federal heath care law, which Rehberg counters is, in fact, a defense of Medicare.
Helping push Medicare to the forefront of political discourse in Montana is the current national discussion on deficit cutting, of which entitlement programs are potential targets. If a congressional “super committee” fails to come to an agreement by Nov. 23 on how to reduce the federal deficit by $1.5 trillion over 10 years, across-the-board cuts will be made to an assortment of programs, including Medicare.
Two fact-checking organizations, FactCheck and PolitiFact, have said the claim that the federal health care law cuts Medicare by $500 billion is misleading. FactCheck says the law calls for “a $500 billion reduction in the growth of future spending over 10 years, not a slashing of the current Medicare budget or benefits.”
Rehberg said FactCheck and PolitiFact are “just plain wrong.”
“Whether it’s called a ‘reduction in future spending,’ a ‘spending cut’ or a ‘peanut butter and jelly sandwich’ the result is the same,” Rehberg told the Beacon last week. “After Obamacare became law, Medicare has $500 billion less than it had before Obamacare.”
Tester spokesman Aaron Murphy, citing PolitiFact, dismissed Rehberg’s claim as “a lie made up only to scare Montanans, and we deserve better.”
“Only Congressman Rehberg’s unpopular Cut, Cap and Balance plan would have cut Medicare,” Murphy said, adding: “Protecting Medicare and Social Security is a high priority for Jon, and his record proves it.”
Parker compared the current Republican strategy of trying to “make inroads” on traditional Democratic turf by leveling Medicare-cutting accusations to the tactics used in the 1998 Kentucky U.S. Senate race between Republican Jim Bunning and Democrat Scotty Baesler.
“They’re saying, ‘You think the Democrats are protecting Medicare, but really we are,’” Parker said. “It’s called inoculation. They’re trying to inoculate themselves; it’s like a vaccine.”
Montana has one of the oldest populations in the nation and it’s getting disproportionately older. The state Census and Economic Information Center estimates that Montana’s 65-and-over population – the minimum age for Medicare eligibility – will increase by 104.8 percent from 2000 to 2030, above the national average. Four counties – Flathead, Jefferson, Ravalli and Lewis and Clark – are expected to see greater than 200 percent growth.
According to AARP Montana, 167,580 Montanans depend on Medicare, which is roughly 17 percent of the state’s population. Nineteen percent of the population receives Social Security. And, as Parker pointed out, these seniors vote. During the last election, 83 percent of Montanans age 50 or older voted, according to AARP.
As the Democrat in the race, Parker said Tester is seeking to establish himself as “the protector of Medicare.” Rehberg, Parker said, is in a “trickier position,” as he doesn’t want to alienate his party base yet still needs to court independents.
“In some ways, this race will be decided by independents,” Parker said.
Parker points to Rehberg’s opposition in April to Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan’s budget plan. Rehberg, one of only four Republican representatives to vote against the plan, said he couldn’t lend his support because of uncertainty over the impact on Medicare.
“It’s a trickier path for him to walk but he does have to think about how he represents Montanans,” Parker said, “and senior citizens represent a big part of Montana.”