As prominent Republicans began gathering in Washington, D.C. last week to brainstorm the best way to revitalize their party’s brand – after losing the presidency, at least 19 House seats and six Senate seats – a similar, albeit less high-profile, group gathered at the Red Lion Inn on Kalispell’s Main Street.
For Republicans in the Flathead, the recent election was far from the trouncing the GOP received on the national stage. Republican Jim Dupont beat Democrat Steve Qunell in a landslide for a coveted county commission seat. The party also picked up a Senate seat locally to solidify Republican control of that chamber on the state level.
But for many attending the first Pachyderm meeting after the election, there was reason for concern. The five highest statewide offices are now all controlled by Democrats. Gov. Brian Schweitzer even dominated in the conservative stronghold of Flathead County, beating Roy Brown, 24,770 to 16,952.
So, while the Pachyderm’s mood was celebratory, it quickly turned to how to stem a Democratic tide continuing to rise across the state – the existence of which fewer Republicans can now dispute.
“This should be a wakeup call,” state Senate-elect Ryan Zinke said at the Pachyderm meeting last week, “that this state is heavily Democrat.”
He spoke to a room filled with a who’s who in the Flathead GOP. Along with Dupont and Zinke, newly elected lawmakers Bruce Tudvedt and Dee Brown were there, among others. It was pegged as the beginning of what will be an ongoing conversation in the party about its direction, which County Commissioner Dale Lauman acknowledged, “needs to refocus.”
While few at the luncheon seemed surprised by Schweitzer’s win, some were taken aback that he gave Brown such a drumming. In precinct after precinct in Flathead County, the incumbent governor won in conservative strongholds. Former House majority leader and current Billings Sen. Brown, while not a household name, was certainly considered a viable candidate to challenge Schweitzer this year, especially when viewed alongside the GOP’s failure to field a serious candidate to challenge U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, who also coasted to re-election last week. But Brown’s message never resonated.
“Most people couldn’t put a face or philosophy on Roy Brown,” Sen. Verdell Jackson, R-Kalispell, said.
Other statewide races, while close, also ended up turning blue. Attorney general candidate Tim Fox and state auditor candidate Duane Grimes were two Republicans singled out as superior candidates who fell short. Republican Secretary of State Brad Johnson’s tight loss to Democrat and former Office of Public Instruction Superintendent Linda McCulloch also sent some shockwaves out of Helena alarming to the state GOP.
This election was unique, with President-elect Barack Obama pouring money and resources into Montana at a rate this state has never seen. Many newly registered young voters translated into more down-ticket Democratic votes. Plus, an obvious enthusiasm gap loomed between the parties, as John McCain, while winning the state, still failed to attract much more than the rank-and-file GOP.
But there were other factors raised by local Republicans, which are likely being discussed by Democrats: Montana elections have changed. Voters are filling out ballots early at a record-shattering rate. In the Flathead alone, about 20,000 people voted before Nov. 4. This changes how campaigns operate, forcing candidates to consider whether spending money on advertising in the weeks before elections still makes sense when a quarter of voters have already marked their ballots. And, as one Republican noted, candidates can no longer take the summer off.
Money is becoming a bigger factor in both local and statewide races. Third-party groups are taking to the airwaves. And, flush with cash, politics in rural Montana are beginning to resemble those in metropolitan areas, where candidates should expect to get their hands dirty.
To an outside observer at last week’s meeting, Zinke, a young former Navy SEAL, appears poised to assume a leadership role in the party for which Republicans appear to be grooming him. He touts himself as a “progressive” Republican and emphasized the need to rebuild the GOP in a way that appeals to an altering electorate.
It’s too early to tell if Zinke’s message will resonate once the gavel falls at the statehouse come January. Helena has a way of laying to waste the best laid political plans. But, a full two years away from the next general election, it’s apparent a new political season has already dawned.