Montana’s union leaders should tread lightly when making compensation demands to the governor and Legislature in the months ahead. Already, the private sector has little sympathy for the public one and it will only worsen with more statements like this from Eric Feaver, president of the MEA-MFT:
“If unable to make salary a salary gain when we next meet the governor’s representatives at the prebudget bargaining table, we will take our chances with the next Legislature. Damn the considerable political risks.”
At least he acknowledged that the political risks are formidable. While I’m sympathetic to the plight of public employees (my mother works for a school district in Spokane, Wash.), it is still hard to grasp the motivation behind this state’s union leaders’ recent stances, especially since the likelihood of an across-the-board pay raise is slim at best.
Montana’s budget surplus – while the envy of other states – is only temporary. Terry Johnson, the Legislature’s chief revenue forecaster, predicts a deficit of some $400 million by 2013. Much of the cash windfall that has prevented layoffs, such as the $26 billion in state aid recently approved by Congress, are short-term fixes. The unions acknowledged that the legislation will provide more than $30 million to Montana and help save 700 education jobs.
But that money won’t be re-deposited next year, nor will the stimulus dollars that plugged holes in the budget. State tax collections are still lagging far behind estimates. And lawmakers are not about to raise taxes to increase “revenue streams,” as has been suggested by the union.
A union leader’s job is to drive a hard bargain and get the best deal for his or her members. But Montana’s public employees, before hunkering down for a prolonged and bitter negotiation, should also take into consideration what they haven’t lost – mainly a large amount of jobs.
Elsewhere, cuts to the public sector have been far deeper. Earlier this year, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie reduced funding for education by $820 million and municipalities by $445 million. Across that state, among the most heavily taxed in the U.S., cities and schools have laid off scores of employees.
The city of Colorado Springs is a microcosm of a worst-case scenario. There, police and fire positions have been dumped. The city also shut off more than one-third of its streetlights, stopped watering local parks and shut down its pools and museums to save money.
Even with the recent injection of $26 billion in federal dollars to help stem some layoffs, many state and local governments must make cuts anyway. Economists predict 30,000 public jobs could be lost each month through the end of the year and up to 700,000 of those positions may be gone 12 months from now. That’s not going to help the unemployment rate.
Meanwhile, Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer told the state’s largest union, the Montana Public Employees Association, that they would keep their jobs. But now union leaders are publicly insisting on a pay raise, a prospect few see panning out for them.
“I just don’t see the public sector getting raises, I just don’t,” Rep. Mike Jopek, D-Whitefish, said in a recent interview.
Kalispell Republican Sen. Verdell Jackson agreed: “I think the private sector is hurting. Nobody in the private sector is getting an increase that I know of.”
If the public employee unions can’t reach a deal with the governor, they may have to go before the Legislature, which could swing to GOP control of both chambers in November. If that’s the case, Montana’s public sector will have far more to worry about than just another salary freeze.